The NHS England Cancer Analysis and Insights Team required analytical support to collate existing demand models and overlay expected workforce supply figures to project how many staff would be needed across different cancer job roles.
They reached out to Arden & GEM's Advanced Analytics Unit (AAU) for support with modelling future workforce demand for cancer pathways.
The challenge
One in every two people in the UK will be told they have cancer at some point in their lives. The NHS Long Term Plan aims to save thousands more lives each year by dramatically improving how we diagnose and treat cancer, with the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan laying out expectations of future workforce requirements.
The Cancer Analysis and Insights Team (CAIT) at NHS England was tasked with undertaking detailed projections on how many nurses, radiologists and oncologists will be required, by type, based on the changing profile of patients in the next 10-20 years. But with limited capacity, while a staff recruitment campaign was underway, specialist analytics support was needed to successfully complete this task.
Our approach
- AAU assigned a senior analyst to the project who worked closely with CAIT throughout, sharing methodology and findings at each stage.
- Existing models for growth in cancer demand across radiotherapy, chemotherapy and surgery were reviewed to understand the methodology used. These models were based on population growth, changes in early detection and initiatives to expand the identification and treatment of cancer.
- The models were tailored to apply to workforce demand so that workforce growth projection and thoracic surgery modelling could be undertaken.
- The AAU analyst acted as the lead contact for the team, chairing meetings, presenting findings and fielding questions from stakeholders.
Project outputs
AAU completed a workforce growth projection template to evaluate the expected growth in staffing required to meet demand.
Research was first undertaken to understand the current cancer workforce, relevant job roles and electronic staff record (ESR) titles, as well as limitations in how job roles/splits are recorded in data for cancer specialities.
A template was then developed to cover radiotherapy, chemotherapy and surgical pathways, as well as palliative care, general nursing, and admin and clerical support. The growth projection factored in current staffing levels, vacancy rates and demand growth projections. Comparisons were given between the current position and expected staffing requirements in 2028.
Supporting rollout of the Targeted Lung Health Check programme
A separate in-depth modelling piece was conducted for thoracic surgery, in response to a national rollout of Targeted Lung Health Checks for those at higher risk of lung cancer. A series of scenarios was modelled, evaluating the expected increased demand from these lung checks, and their flow through to cancer diagnosis and potential requirement for surgery.
Modelled growth in lung cancer resections required due to Targeted Lung Health Checks
Outcomes
The support from AAU enabled the Cancer Analysis and Insights Team to successfully meet the demands of multiple conflicting project requirements by the required deadlines.
- The data produced will be used to advise the Department of Health and Social Care on potential recruitment required to meet the increased demand for cancer pathways.
- The thoracic surgery modelling will be used to undertake recruitment of more surgeons to meet the demand of the Targeted Lung Health Check programme.
- Strategic workforce modelling will feed into a wider workforce strategy used to understand the additional staffing needed to meet future demand.
AAU was able to support CAIT to manage their requests while they underwent recruitment to a permanent post, with a full handover given to the new team member to continue the work of the project.
"The AAU team was great to work with. They were very responsive and picked up the work quickly and were able to work without much guidance after a few handover sessions and questions. The Senior Business Intelligence Analyst was able to communicate another team member's work to senior staff soon after picking it up and it was very well received."
Demian Jardel - Senior Analytical Manager, NHS England Cancer Analysis and Insights Team
Find out more about the work of the Advanced Analytics Unit.